Matt Stafford in high school – lookin mean! Oh yeah, I love whippin out the ole high school pics!
Matt Stafford is definitely the best quarterback in the 2009 draft, and he has a lot going for him. In fact, he has a ton going for him. But the one thing he does not likely have is the ability to start his first year and play well in the NFL – even if he was playing for a team that’s not the worst team in the history of the known universe! It’s hard to argue with the fact that Stafford would likely benefit from a year of bench-learnin. In fact, almost all quarterbacks do – and many of the best ones have spent at least a year behind a great veteran. Yes, I was watching Joe Flacco and MattRyan last year – but does Detroit have the Raven’s D? Does Detroit have the Falcon’s running game? There’s a lot to consider here – follow along if you will. But I’m warning you, it may be too late. As reported by Tony Pauline in his recent artice:
“The draft is still more than three weeks away, but Stafford’s workout today was so impressive that observers in Athens got the impression it was a “done deal” and the Lions will use the first pick to acquire Stafford.”
But we have to try to get the message across to the Lions, so here goes!
The Detroit Lions need everything right now. They have almost nothing to build on. Detroit needs people that can play right now and make an impact – not so that they can win right now, but so that they have some talented young players with good, quality experience to build the franchise around in the coming years. Doesn’t it sound like Matt Stafford would be the perfect fit then? No. Here’s why…
Stafford Will Not Get Quality Playing Time
The quarterback needs a team around him to be able to accomplish anything. If Matt Stafford goes to the Lions he will have one great young receiver, no offensive line, no running game, and no defense. If you throw Stafford out there now to get him experience that you can build on, what experience is he going to get? He’s going to get his ass beat – that’s what he’s going to get. He’s going to get hit repeatedly, throw tons of interceptions, lose tons of games, get reamed by the media, lose a lot of confidence, and be able to look back on the whole thing as one big disaster.
What Would Stafford Gain From That?
Nothing. Nada. Zilch. You don’t learn how to play quarterback in the NFL by getting your ass and your ego handed to you every single game. You can’t learn to throw if you have no time to throw. You can’t learn to win when there’s almost no chance of winning. You can’t be a leader when you’re a rookie and everyone, including the opposing D-line and your own media, is bashing your face in. You learn from being challenged, not from being thrown to the Lions.
What Would The Lions Gain From That?
Nothing. Nada. Zilch. You spent your first round draft pick on quarterback that got his face beat in for an entire year. Now, fast forward to 2010. You have a 2nd year QB with a gigantic salary, pummeled by the media for an entire year, no real control of the team, and nobody knows if he’ll ever develop into a franchise quarterback – because he never had a real chance to prove himself with talent around him. So basically, you’re starting all over again with him, hoping he’ll develop.
What Should The Lions Do?
The Lions should stick with Culpepper and whoever else they have for this year at Quarterback (does anyone even know who they have? I don’t) and pick somebody at a position that can get quality playing time and is much more likely to be successful in the NFL than a quarterback. Picking a quarterback out of college is a crap shoot – we’ve seen that a million times. You don’t know who will develop into an NFL quarterback and who won’t. Pick a lineman or a linebacker. Even on a poor-quality team, those guys can get high quality playing time and really make an impact right out of the gate. They will grow, develop, and learn with every snap – no matter what the team’s record, no matter what the score in each game. Linemen and linebackers are far easier to pick out of college, and the Lions must pick somebody that is going to turn out to be an impact player. They can not afford anymore throw-aways – they’ve already had 40 years worth – except Barry Sanders – Barry! Please come back! It’s not too late!
The Lions can use this year to grab some quality linemen and linebackers, get them some excellent playing time and experience, and then next year work on getting a quarterback either through the draft where you’ll have Colt McCoy,Tim Tebow, and Sam Bradford to choose from, amongst many others, or through free agency.
I think Matt Stafford has an excellent chance of becoming a good-to-great NFL quarterback, but I think he needs to sit a year first. Detroit can’t afford that. Stafford needs to go to a solid team with an aging veteran QB, a draft pick or two to spare, and a need for a QB that can learn the system and develop for the future. Matt Stafford, welcome to the New England Patriots!
Now I wanna see some comments on this post, people! Good and bad – throw em at me!
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“I think he needs to sit a year first. Detroit can’t afford that.”
Detroit can definitely afford that. They are actually in the perfect situation to afford it. There no high expectations for the Lions this upcoming season. They’re not expected to make a run for the Super Bowl. At best, they’re expected to overachieve if they win four games. They might as well use the season to break in Stafford slowly so he can be ready for next year. They don’t need to start him. They can start Daunte Culpepper and let him be the tackling dummy (he’s not the future of the franchise anyway, we all know that) and plug in Stafford when the game is out of hand or bring him in for a couple of plays every game so he can get his feet wet. But in order for this to work Schwartz and the rest of the staff need to resist pressure from the fanbase to start him no matter how loud the shouts to start Stafford get. If they can do that it will pay off in the long run. The Lions need to think long term not short term.
I would totally agree with you if it wasn’t for one key assumption that you’re making – and that is that Matt Stafford will become a good-to-great NFL quarterback. If you could know for a fact that he was going to become a solid quarterback and leader in the NFL, then I would say absolutely draft him now. But what if he’s Ryan Leaf? What if he completely flops? That’s what Detroit can not afford – to use their top draft picks on guys that may or may not turn out to be solid NFL players. There is no guarantee with any player, but you have to play the odds. There are positions with a much lower failure rate than quarterback – in fact, probably all positions!
I say draft as close to a sure thing as you can right now, and look to pick up a proven NFL quarterback in the offseason next year. That way you have guys that you drafted this year with a year of experience under their belts in the Lion’s system and the NFL, along with a proven quarterback to come in to lead them next year, along with whatever draft picks they can pick up next year.
They just can’t afford a flop in their early round picks – they shouldn’t take that risk. Go with better odds in different positions and pick up a proven winner at quarterback in the offseason next year. Then you have something solid to build on.
Great comment! I enjoy the debate!
How many proven winners are actually on the market? If they wanted a proven winner they would have traded that 1st pick for Jay Cutler. Matt Cassel would have sufficed but they didn’t so now they must draft a QB. The Lions have needs everywhere- offensive line, running back, DEFENSE IN GENERAL. Your are much more likely to find a “proven winner” at those positions in free agency then you are at quarterback. We could go down the list, all the top QBs in the league are under contract and the only thing the Lions have to trade are those two first round picks and well….Calvin Johnson and they are not trading him. They should have made a move if they wanted a “proven winner”.
I totally agree that if they wanted a proven winner they should’ve gone with Cutler. I was hoping they would – not that I’m a Lion’s fan – I’m a Bills fan from Buffalo – but I still say they can use Culpepper to get them through this year and pick up a quarterback next year either through trade, free agency, or the draft. It’s just very, very tough to draft a quarterback unless it’s a Peyton Manning or someone you know is almost a sure thing coming out of college. And like I said, they can’t afford to draft someone high that’s going to be sitting, or just going to get his confidence and brains blasted to oblivion, or never pan out.
Stick with Culpepper for this year – he’s fine. Focus in other areas for now. Pick up a QB next year after you actually have a few guys on the field that can play. Right now they have one potential superstar, and that’s Calvin Johnson – as you mentioned. Grab a couple more real good players this year and see what opportunities come up for a QB next year.
You should expect the Lions to start Culpepper regardless of who they draft. There is an article at SmartFootball.blogspot.com about the Lions switching back to the Run and Shoot offense. The R&S allows offenses with small or just plan bad offensive lines to still be successful. Good article. The Lions have picks 1 and 20. Since Tom Condon represents both Stafford and Baylor OT Jason Smith the suspected other option would be Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry. Why take Curry 1st overall when Rey Maualauga is likely to be available at 20 along with USC teammates Brian Cushing and Clay Matthews JR. There are 5 OT they are likely to be taken early- Jason Smith, Andre Smith, Michael Oher, some guy from U of Arizona, and Eugene Monroe from Virginia. Why take a tackle first when they are likely to be available at 20. Lions may have many holes to fill but they got plenty of options. Sooner or later they got to fix it but to answer your question- Yes, if I am Stafford, I do not want to be taken by the Lions or 49ers. Seattle at 4 might be nice.